The tenth exit poll for the Bihar Assembly elections has been released and it has joined the others in predicting a clear majority for the NDA, albeit by the smallest margin.
Vote Vibe has predicted that the NDA will win between 125 and 145 seats in the 243-seat Assembly, where the majority mark is 122. The Mahagathbandhan has been projected to win between 95-115 constituencies and, in line with other exit poll predictions, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is estimated to either not open its account at all or emerge victorious in two.
Of the nine other exit polls, which had put out their numbers on Tuesday, the lowest margin was predicted by Chanakya Strategies, which said the ruling alliance is likely to win 130-138 seats. Two others, People’s Insight and People’s Pulse, predicted 133 on the lower end, and the highest was Matrize, whose range started from 147 and went all the way up to 167 – beyond the two-thirds majority mark.
NDTV’s Poll of Exit Polls, which is an aggregate, suggests that the NDA is likely to win 146 constituencies while the Mahagathbandhan will be restricted to 91. The Jan Suraaj Party may barely open its account and end up with one seat.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
If the numbers end up like this on Friday, this will be the fourth big boost for the BJP and the NDA since the results ended up worse than they expected in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP managed to retain its government in Haryana and sweep the AAP out of power in Delhi, and the NDA also stayed in power in Maharashtra.
The Maharashtra and Haryana elections were seen to be difficult for the BJP and the NDA, as was Bihar, especially since JDU chief Nitish Kumar has been the chief minister of the state for 20 years, barring a nine-month hiatus.
Kumar and the NDA were, thus, expected to face anti-incumbency, but exit polls suggest that has not been a factor. Whatever votes were cast against the NDA, the polls indicate, have also been divided between the Mahagathbandhan and the Jan Suraaj Party, which has worked in the ruling alliance’s favour.