The debate around Palestinian statehood has once again gathered steam. A spate of countries, notably European or white, have recognised Palestine as a state. The United Kingdom spearheaded the latest wave, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer saying, “In the face of the growing horror in the Middle East, we are acting to keep alive the possibility of peace and a two-state solution.” He was followed by Canada, Australia and Portugal. On September 22, President Emmanuel Macron of France also followed suit, with Malta, Monaco, Luxembourg and San Marino announcing similar decisions. The move came at the High-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution, co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in the US. Belgium and Andorra have also issued declarations of recognition, though both have conditioned it on the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the group’s removal from power in Gaza.
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In total, 153 of the UN’s 193 member states – around 80% – now officially recognise Palestine. Other states that have announced such recognition more recently are South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Sweden, as well as Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Slovenia, Armenia and Mexico added their names.
Where India Stands
India, for one, had recognised the State of Palestine decades ago in 1988, becoming one of the first countries to do so. It was the same year when Yasser Arafat, the Chairman of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), had declared Palestinian independence in Algiers. Dozens of Arab, Asian and African states immediately extended recognition, followed over the years by much of the developing world. Incidentally, in 1974, India was already the first Non-Arab State to recognise the PLO as the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
Of course, this has been met with anger by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that there would be no Palestinian state and boasts that he has expanded Jewish settlements on the West Bank, which is illegal under international law. He has vowed a response to those recognising a Palestinian state – “to this attempt to impose a terror state in the heart of our land” – upon his return from the US. He has alleged that recognition of a Palestinian state was a reward for terrorism, alluding to Hamas’s unprecedented and macabre attacks on Israel in October 2023. His far-right minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, responded to the news by calling for Israel to annex the West Bank and dismantle the Palestinian Authority. In his address at the UN this week, US President Donald Trump also decried the move by countries to recognise a Palestinian state. “As if to encourage continued conflict, some of these bodies [are] seeking to unilaterally recognise a Palestinian state,” he said, adding that it would be like a reward for Hamas for its actions.
Israel’s Case
The Israeli government’s position may be explained by the fact that the attacks orchestrated by Hamas on Israel in October 2023 are said to be the largest single attack on Jews since the Holocaust. Around 1,200 people – mostly Israelis, but some foreign citizens too – were killed, which included both elderly as well as infants; another 251 were taken hostage. Some 41 hostages still remain in the Gaza Strip.
Israel launched a relentless aerial assault on Gaza after the attacks, which were then followed by a massive ground assault. Two short, fragile ceasefires came later. The US has been the most supportive of Israel in this war, with President Trump even floating a ‘Trump plan’ for Gaza, which purportedly involves developing the region as a luxury resort after resettling its residents elsewhere. International condemnation, along with discouragement by America’s Arab allies, has led to the plan being shelved for now. But widespread death, destruction, displacement and devastation continue.
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So, why has the Western world suddenly decided to recognise Palestine now, more than three decades after Arafat declared a Palestinian state?
Guilt Speaking?
A cynical explanation may be: to placate its own conscience. There is no denying that European anti-Semitism, culminating in the Holocaust, sowed the seeds of the current conflict in the Middle East. The 1948 UN decision proposed partitioning British-mandated Palestine into two independent states, one Jewish and one Arab. This was challenged by the Arabs. Today, many Palestinians would agree that this was a catastrophic mistake. Three major Arab-Israel wars later, with several rounds of conflicts between Israel and the PLO, and later Islamist groups – prime amongst which is Hamas – and endless negotiations, numerous conferences, two Palestinian uprisings, displacement, and the pathbreaking Oslo Accords in between, the Palestinians are nowhere near having their own state. They have settled for less than what the UN Partition Plan had allotted them, as a price for not accepting it initially.
Yet, statehood has been elusive. The West Bank land continued to shrink as Israel did not cease settlement-building, a key requirement for negotiations that were based on the land-for-peace formula. Instead, more restrictions were put in place. Even when Israel disengaged from Gaza, it was not a complete disengagement – it retained control over border crossings, movement of goods and people, and collection and disbursal of taxes.
War On Both Sides
In turn, Palestinian fractiousness, coupled with the growth of Hamas and other militant groups like Islamic Jihad, which continued terror attacks inside Israel, contributed to the death of the Oslo Accords. Whenever a glimmer of hope appeared on the horizon, it would quickly be snuffed out by one or the other side. Either Hamas would carry out an attack on Israel, or Israel would assassinate one of its militant leaders, scuttling whatever negotiation or discussions were underway.
This is what happened in October 2023, too. Israel had just renewed permits for residents of Gaza to come and work in Israel – much-needed for the people – when Hamas struck. Any country would have retaliated, but Israel did so with its famous disproportionate force. Two years into the war, investigations and data, much of it collected by Israeli advocacy groups like B’tselem and Physicians for Human Rights, report finding evidence of starvation and a genocidal war being waged by Israel. More than 62,000 Palestinians are reported dead by the Hamas Ministry; there is widespread displacement, and Gaza has been almost flattened. Most recently, an independent UN inquiry found that Israel has “committed four genocidal acts” in the enclave since it began its retaliatory war against Hamas.
Spillover Effect
The war has spilt over into neighbouring countries, too. Israel is fighting the Hezbollah in Lebanon, and in Yemen, the Houthis. In fact, it was also engaged in a direct 12-day war with Iran a few months back. Most recently, Israel attempted to strike Hamas members of the negotiating team in Doha, but that turned out to be a failed endeavour.
No amount of persuasion, coercion, boycotts or punitive measures by either the US or the European Union, let alone the Arab world, has succeeded in halting Israel’s actions. And yet, all this has not given Israel the decisive victory it has been looking for. Though Hamas is a spent force with almost its entire leadership decimated, 41 Israeli hostages still remain in their control. Neither has Hamas surrendered. Both sides seem to be engaged in what can only be described as a messianic battle: a fight to the finish.
A Tactic To Push Israel?
The recognition of Palestinian statehood, probably, is thus meant to be a pressure tactic to bring Israel to the negotiating table and keep the prospects for a two-state solution alive.
This was the justification given by Starmer. Australia’s Albert Albanese also echoed the same logic: “The recognition of Palestine is a step forward towards Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in peace and security and advancing the prosperity of both peoples.” Macron defended his move by saying that recognition was necessary to preserve chances for a two-state solution and that it was also a defeat for Hamas and those who fuel anti-semitism. The worst, though, could still happen – more civilian deaths, the expulsion of Gaza’s residents to Egypt, annexation of the West Bank, the killing of hostages held by Hamas, etc., he said.
Large Muslim Populations
Many have argued that the existence of large Muslim communities in these countries has been instrumental in conferring such recognition. There is much truth to this, too. Yet, not all countries recognising a Palestinian state are conditioned by their Muslim electorates – Norway, for instance. Many have coupled their recognition with other punitive measures against Israel to stop its war on Gaza and settlement expansion in the West Bank. Britain, for instance, has curbed defence exports to Israel and sanctioned far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Germany and Spain have announced a total arms embargo on Israel, while Norway’s sovereign wealth fund – the world’s largest – has divested from a number of Israeli companies over the Gaza war. With Israel’s close ties to Europe, these pressure tactics may cause a rethink within the Israeli government. The UAE, Israel’s closest Arab ally, recently banned the Israeli government and defence companies from their November Dubai Air Show.
The recognition has brought the Palestinians cheer and hope. Most Palestinians, while hating Israel, are not Hamas supporters. Still, the move remains largely symbolic. Recognition does not grant Palestine a full UN membership; that requires a Security Council approval and is something the United States is likely to block. The state department has termed the recognition as “performative” by states.
Not Just In Letter
The recognition, thus, will be meaningful only when it’s backed by action. The first is to halt the war, impose a ceasefire, get all the hostages back, and disarm and disband Hamas. The Fatah-dominated Palestinian Liberation Organization, which rules the West Bank, renounced violence decades ago. However, the West Bank kept witnessing a proliferation of Israeli settlements – a constant and major source of friction between Palestinians and Israeli settlers and Defence Forces – and confiscation of Palestinian lands. Almost three decades have passed since the Oslo Accords, and there has been no movement on finalising the negotiations, let alone regarding the final borders of a Palestinian State. After the beginning of the Gaza war, a Palestinian state has never seemed more remote.
Yet, with three million stateless people in the West Bank, along with two million Gazans under a blockade – imposed both by Israel and by Egypt – it is not tenable for Israel to continue the status quo ante. Five million people cannot be simply done away with. The only alternative to this would then be extending Israeli citizenship to them in a single, united state. This, however, would spell the end of Israel’s Jewish character.
Will Israel See Logic?
The war has taken a toll on Israel, too. According to Bloomberg, the two-year war has cost the country some 229 billion Israeli shekels – about $67 billion. About 3 lakh recruits have been called to service, 439 soldiers have died in Gaza alone, hundreds of Israelis have been displaced, and there have been massive disruptions in trade, travel, tourism and other economic activities. Israel’s GDP dipped by 1.4% in 2024, and its exports and imports have also dropped.
This is an unenviable position for Israel, but it will have to make hard choices in order to return to the journey it had been on till the war: a hi-tech, start-up nation, the only democracy in the Middle East, fuelled by knowledge and innovation.
(The author is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author